The Toronto Maple Leafs are just one win away from sending the Ottawa Senators packing, with Game 4 of their series set for Saturday night in Ottawa.
It’s been a brutal series for the Senators, who find themselves in a 3-0 hole after dropping two heartbreaking overtime games.
The Leafs dominated the opener 6-2 before squeaking out back-to-back 3-2 overtime wins in Games 2 and 3.
History isn’t on Ottawa’s side. Only four NHL teams have ever come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a series. The last time it happened? The Los Angeles Kings pulled off the miracle in 2014.
The oddsmakers are giving Ottawa a slight edge for Saturday’s must-win game. The Senators are -113 favorites on home ice, with Toronto right behind at -107.
For the Senators to have any chance, they’ll need to figure out how to contain Toronto’s dynamic duo of Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews.
Marner’s been on fire this year, hitting the 100-point mark for the first time in his career. Matthews, despite missing 15 games, remains one of the league’s most dangerous scorers.
But here’s where it gets interesting for Saturday’s game: The numbers suggest both stars might be due for a quiet night.
Both Marner and Matthews have struggled to put up big numbers against middle-of-the-pack defenses lately, going under 1.5 points in four of their last five games against such teams.
Ottawa’s young star Tim Stutzle has been particularly quiet this series, managing just one point so far. The 23-year-old, who led the Senators in scoring this season, will need to step up if his team wants to stay alive.
The over/under for total goals is set at 5.5, suggesting we might see another tight, defensive battle.
For Ottawa, it’s simple: win or start summer vacation early. For Toronto, it’s a chance to complete their first playoff sweep in recent memory.
