Brock Nelson’s time with the New York Islanders might be coming to an end after 12 years. According to Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic, Nelson’s planning to test free agency this summer, which means the Islanders might need to trade him before the deadline if they can’t turn their season around.
The 33-year-old center isn’t having his best year. He’s got 10 goals and 20 points in 35 games – not terrible, but not what fans have come to expect from a guy who’s scored 30+ goals in each of the last three seasons.
He’s in quite a slump right now. Nelson hasn’t scored in 12 straight games, picking up just three assists during that stretch. That’s a far cry from his hot start when he had 10 goals in his first 24 games.
The numbers tell an interesting story. Nelson’s usually been a pretty reliable shooter, converting about 14.2% of his shots throughout his career. This year? He’s down to 11% – his lowest since he was a rookie.
Things aren’t looking great for the Islanders either. They’re below .500 and just got embarrassed 7-1 by the Buffalo Sabres right before the holiday break. Their playoff chances? Not great. Different prediction models give them anywhere from a 6% to 34% shot at making it.
But here’s the thing – there’s still plenty of season left. Lou Lamoriello, the Islanders’ GM, isn’t known for giving up early, and he’ll probably want to see how things play out before making any big moves.
Nelson said back in training camp he was open to talking about a new contract during the season. Either those talks never happened or they didn’t go well, because now he’s looking at his options elsewhere.
That could make things tricky for the Islanders. If Nelson’s determined to test free agency, teams might not want to give up much to get him at the trade deadline. Plus, he’s got a no-trade clause that lets him block moves to 16 different teams.
Two teams to watch: the Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild. The Wild would need some creative accounting to make it work – they’d probably need the Islanders to keep paying half of Nelson’s $6 million salary. But they’ll have plenty of cap space this summer, especially with the salary cap going up by at least $4 million.
Minnesota might be particularly appealing to Nelson – it’s his home state, after all. He’d fit in nicely with their current centers, and they could probably afford him long-term, even if he might need to take a slight pay cut given his age and recent performance dip.
The Stars could make a trade work more easily right now, but they might struggle to keep him beyond this season.